Canadian GDP Slowed Dramatically in Q4 2022, Another Reason the BoC Won’t Raise Rates in March.

bad news is good news for the bank of Canada

Statistics Canada released the real gross domestic product (GDP) figure for the final quarter of 2022 this morning, showing a marked slowdown in economic activity. This will undoubtedly keep the central bank on the sidelines when they announce their decision on March 8. The Bank had estimated the Q4 growth rate to be 1.3%. Instead, the economy was flat in Q4 at a 0.0% growth rate. This was the slowest quarterly growth pace since the second quarter of 2021.

Inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter declined for manufacturing and retail goods, driving investment in inventories to decline by $29.8 billion. Further, higher interest rates by the Bank of Canada hampered investment in housing (-8.8% at an annual rate), and business investment in machinery and equipment was a weak -5.5%. On the other hand, personal expenditure in the Canadian economy expanded by 2.0% (vs -0.4% in Q3), supported by the red-hot labour market. Government spending growth also accelerated. At the same time, net foreign demand contributed positively to GDP growth as exports grew by 0.8% while imports shrank by 12.0%.

The weak Q4 result reduced the full-year gain in GDP for 2022 to 3.4%, compared to 2.1% in the US, 4.0% in the UK, and 3.6% in the Euro area.

The January GDP flash estimate was +0.3%, pointing towards a rebound in the first quarter of this year. However, flash estimates are always volatile and subject to revision. Nevertheless, the growth in GDP this year will likely be much more moderate, less than 1%.

Bottom Line
The weakness in today’s economic data will be good news to the Bank of Canada, having promised a pause in rate hikes to assess the impact of the cumulative rise in interest rates over the past year. Today’s GDP report and the slowdown in the January CPI inflation numbers portend no interest rate hike on March 8.

Now the Bank will be looking for a softening in the labour market.

The current economic landscape can be challenging for young Canadians to navigate as they face great uncertainty with heightened interest rates and inflation. It can be frustrating as they are just starting to build their career, considering buying a home or starting a family. If you are a parent, you may be thinking about how you can help your child during this period. The CHIP Reverse Mortgage by HomeEquity Bank is a sound financial solution that can help you support your loved ones by providing a tax-free gift.

The Gift of Early Inheritance 

As a parent, you may want to provide an early inheritance to see your adult children use the funds to improve their lives in a time of need. By giving an early inheritance, you can avoid probate fees (estate administration tax) and save money by bringing you to a lower tax bracket*. With an early inheritance, your children can pay for their wedding, start a business, pay off student loans, make a down payment on their home, and much more. Speak to your tax specialist for more details.

How the CHIP Reverse Mortgage Works

You may have heard of people using a home equity line of credit (HELOC) or liquidating their investments to gift an early inheritance. However, there are disadvantages associated with loss of earnings or tax payable when it is time to sell their investments. The CHIP Reverse Mortgage by HomeEquity Bank allows you to unlock up to 55% of the equity in your home without any of these challenges. With the CHIP Reverse Mortgage, your investments remain intact, and no monthly mortgage payments are required. Therefore, your income is not affected, and best of all, the money you get from the CHIP Reverse Mortgage is tax-free!

If you want to provide a tax-free gift to your children, contact me for details on how the CHIP Reverse Mortgage by HomeEquity Bank can help you.

*HomeEquity Bank requires all clients to receive independent legal advice to review the mortgage contract and ensure they fully understand the terms and conditions.

Published by HomeEquity Bank

Contact me here if you want more information about Chip Reverse Mortgage

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The best mortgage brokers in the business will make sure all of your bases are covered, and you’re fully aware of what you’re signing onto. The right broker will make the process easier for you, whether it’s buying your first home, shopping for a better rate, or even jumping into investment properties. No matter what stage of life you are in, I’ve got a mortgage product for you.

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